Documentation
Methodology
The Displacement Index is a data-driven dashboard tracking a specific economic hypothesis: that rapid AI capability improvement could trigger a chain reaction through white-collar labor markets, consumer spending, credit markets, and housing.
The Displacement Chain
We track five linked “chain links” that would be expected to deteriorate in sequence:
Chain Links
- White-Collar Displacement — sector unemployment and employment counts
- Consumer Spending — real consumption, sentiment, retail sales
- Ghost GDP — productivity rising faster than real wages (output not reaching workers)
- Credit Stress — high-yield spreads and delinquency rates
- Mortgage Stress — residential mortgage delinquency rates
Scoring
Each indicator is compared against its own 5-year historical distribution using a z-score (standard deviations from the mean). Link-level status is derived from the average signal intensity of its underlying indicators.
Status thresholds
- Normal: below 0.5σ
- Elevated: 0.5–1.0σ
- Warning: 1.0–2.0σ
- Critical: above 2.0σ
The composite index is a 0–100 mapping of average chain severity.
Data Sources
All inputs are sourced from public datasets:
- FRED (St. Louis Fed): macroeconomic time series aggregating data from BLS, BEA, Census, FDIC, ICE/BofA, UMich, and others
- Indeed Hiring Lab: job postings indices by sector (CC-BY-4.0)
Notes
- This site is designed to be descriptive, not predictive.
- Eventual consistency applies to KV-backed updates (typically ≤60s global propagation).
- Scheduled refresh runs every 6 hours (UTC).